The 2050 Calculator
A fresh approach to modelling energy and emissions
What makes the calculator different?
Some models only include the power sector, or do not include process emissions from industry or from land use. The calculator covers all energy forms (oil, coal, gas, biomass, electricity etc.) and all emissions (from fossil fuel combustion, but also from industrial processes and land use etc.). This makes it a more powerful tool, as you can really see all the options available to you, and all their impacts.
Economics vs engineering
Many energy models are based on economics, looking at what effect changing prices, demand or supply could have on the market, and in turn what the optimal energy system would be under these circumstances. These models use complex equations and assumptions about the behaviour of individuals and firms. They are sometimes called "black box" models because inputs go in and outputs come out, but it is not clear what is happening in the middle because they are so complicated. This means that typically only a few experts can properly use them, and consequently trust in them can be low.
The calculator is different in that it based more on engineering and physics than on economic forces. Users choose from a range of options for the future without really needing to consider the set of circumstances that would cause them to come about. It avoids any assumptions about what motivates behaviour and instead allows the user to see what the impact of changing behaviour directly would be. It is about what is possible, not what is probable.
Open and transparent
The calculator also differs from most models in that it is not a black box. It is as simple as possible, and also as transparent as possible. The full models of most calculators produced so far have been published online, so that anyone with an interest can explore how they work and examine all the assumptions they use. Because the basic model is built using Excel, which is widely used all over the world, users can get answers without the need for specialist training or waiting days for results.
The calculator methodology also encourages being open with stakeholders and actively consulting them at every stage of the design process. This means that the finished calculators are more accurate and more trusted.
Disadvantages
While the calculator approach has these advantages over conventional modelling, it does have its drawbacks:
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Because it is not an economic model, it cannot be used to explore the potential impact of changes in fuel prices, new policies or international agreements. Traditional economic models still have an important role to play in policy development, and the calculator should be seen as another tool in the policy maker's armoury, rather than a replacement for everything else.
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It makes no predictions about what will happen in the future.
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Because it has been built as simply as possible, the calculator does remove the fine detail from each sector. For those looking at a particular sector closely, it may not be the right tool to use. The calculator is most valuable when looking at large-scale changes and overall trade-offs, rather than sub-sections of the energy economy.
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