The 2050 Calculator
A fresh approach to modelling energy and emissions
History
The calculator story began in the UK in 2009, when the government's Department of Energy and Climate Change (now the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy) was tasked with coming up with a plan to meet the world's first legally binding emissions target (an 80% reduction by 2050 based on a 1990 baseline). Because there was uncertainty about what technologies would be available in the future, the team decided to build a new tool to explore all the options available, rather than using existing models that determine an optimum pathway.
A number of "key messages" from the calculator were published - lessons learnt from all pathways that meet the 2050 target. These were then used to develop the Carbon Plan, the government's overall emission reduction strategy, in 2011. A simplified version of the calculator called My2050 was developed aimed at the general public. Over 17,000 people have submitted pathways using this site, giving a unique insight into public opinion on the energy transition.
Since then, other countries, regions and territories have adopted a similar approach and have built their own calculators to help inform policy and increase public understanding of energy issues. This began with the Belgian region of Wallonia, and was quickly followed by China. In 2012 DECC received funding from the International Climate Fund to support 10 developing countries to build calculators using locally based teams.
Each team has refined and extended the calculator methodology to answer their own questions, and we hope that more places will be able to benefit in the future.
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